Tsunami Risk in NSW – An update on recent modelling and risk assessment. (#82)
Andrews F, Beadle C, Davies B, Fraser A, Garber S, Greenslade D, Hanslow D, Horspool N, Kuster N, Opper S, and Treloar D.
Tsunamis pose considerable risk to coastal communities around the globe and understanding this risk is a key aspect of emergency management and risk reduction. This paper explores the nature and extent of tsunami hazard to NSW coastal communities and informs tsunami emergency planning and management.
We outline the results of recent risk scoping which have examined sources of tsunami hazard and tsunami history, together with results of inundation studies for selected sites and discuss the level of tsunami risk to these NSW communities. We also outline how the results have complimented research by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in confirming tsunami warning thresholds for NSW.
Work undertaken to date indicates the coast of NSW has a moderate tsunami hazard level. Whilst historical impact of tsunami inundation in NSW has been relatively minor, and generally restricted to marine based events, the modelling of selected earthquake generated events indicates the potential for land inundation particularly at high (rare) return periods. Low lying populated communities around estuary foreshores are particularly at risk although results also indicate the potential for inundation of open coast sites at very high (very rare) return periods.
This work informs further planning and preparedness in emergency risk management on a state and national level. The results confirm the need for, and support the ongoing collaborative development of, emergency management arrangements for tsunami.