Emergency management agencies are continually under pressure to do more with less and are subjected to increasing scrutiny. To help meet these demands several Victorians started building a Fire Behaviour Analyst capability in 2006.

Based on a combination of personal bushfire experience and knowledge of academically reviewed scientific principles, Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBANs) provide advice to fire managers before and during emergencies. The FBAN role has been used widely in North America for many years, but was not formally used in Australia before 2006.

In Victoria the program developed rapidly and produced a cadre of highly skilled analysts whose products and services have become integrated into everyday bushfire management, especially quantifying risk to communities and infrastructure. Many examples of the positive impact of fire behaviour prediction have been recorded.

So how has this new capability evolved so quickly?

This paper presents a history of the Victorian Fire Behaviour Analyst program. It outlines how just a few individuals developed a new service that has helped fire agencies become more efficient and accountable.

Some of the lessons learnt relate to:

• Training and mentoring personnel
• Developing standards
• Working in a multi-agency environment
• Balancing information needs at state, regional and local (incident) level
• Developing tools and systems
• Establishing networks with inter-state and international agencies
• Developing new capability in a financially constrained environment.

Some of the pressures faced include:

• Changing climate
• Increasing demand for planned burning
• Increasing demand for public warnings
• Increasing population
• Increasing workforce specialisation.

The evolution of fire behaviour prediction tools and services in Victoria provides an interesting account of lessons learnt, success stories and rapid innovation in response to increasing demand in the emergency sector for more consistent, accurate, reliable and defendable decisions during emergencies.