The floods that occurred in Western Australia and down the east coast of Australia between December 2010 and January 2011 had shocking consequences for the community: many towns were evacuated, property was destroyed, a city was inundated, and 37 lives were lost. Australia is truly a ‘land of droughts and flooding rains’, with periods of severe drought followed by extensive flooding playing an important and defining role in shaping our way of life. But Australia, it appears, is also a country that is easily surprised, and outraged by natural disasters. We are quick to search for someone to blame, even if it means reversing the burden of proof. Flood risk is immensely difficult to forecast, but it is more easily predicted. There are lessons here for how we estimate flood risk, in how we manage and communicate risk, and in how we accommodate uncertainty.